前言
記得剛開始接觸到股票投資時,很多事情不明白,全靠Google到的資訊自行吸收,當時甚至連巴菲特是甚麼人物都不清楚,後來慢慢地接觸股票投資的時間長了,時不時就會在網路上看到巴菲特的經典語錄,或是對於價值投資的解析…等等。
而有一次在看到巴菲特和比爾蓋茲逛糖果店的影片,巴菲特和比爾蓋茲除了在糖果店分享彼此喜歡的糖果口味之外,也一同在回味創業初期的故事,巴菲特手裡拿著一本書,說這本書改變了他的人生。
智慧型股票投資人
這本書就是由巴菲特的老師班傑明‧葛拉漢(Benjamin Graham)在1949年出版的智慧型股票投資人(The Intelligent Investor),當時看到這幕的我心想有沒有這麼厲害,於是馬上註冊了Amazon的帳號下訂。
學期間太忙,閱讀的進度頗為緩慢,再加上一邊看一邊做筆記,直到過年才終於利用空檔全部看完。謹用這一篇文章,來註記印象深刻的字句和段落,雖然已經歷經70年的時間,裡頭有許多觀念,至今仍然受用
原文下方的中文並非翻譯,而是大意加上一些個人看法,可斟酌參考
重點摘錄
防禦型投資人(defensive investor)
P.10
”At this point let us mention briefly three supplementary concepts or practices for the defensive investor. The first is the purchases of shares of the leading investing funds as an alternative to creating his own common stock portfolio. Alternatively, he many utilize one of the “common trust funds”, or “commingled funds”, now operated by trust companies and banks in many states.
This will give him professional administration of his investment program along standard lines. The second is the device of “dollar averaging,” which means simply that the investor invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or quarter.
By this means he buys more shares in low markets than in high markets and thus is likely to end up with a satisfactory average price for all his holdings. The third is known as “formula timing”.
This is a positive effort to take advantage of the board swings of the market by selling out, on some gradual and automatic basis, as the market advances and repurchasing as it declines.”
這段話主要是在說防禦型投資人的三個具體做法
- 購買優質的基金來組件投資組合,這樣能確保你的投資是依循標準的
- Dollar Averaging,這邊可以解釋作定期定額,固定時間購買固定金額的股票,可以確保在價格偏低時買到較多的股數,較高時買到較少,這樣能確保持有成本的均價不會過高
- 擇時進場,在市場上漲時逐漸賣出,利用市場波動下跌時買進
還記得當時讀到這邊看到定期定額的概念讓我好訝異,這本書是1949年出版的,在當時的美國已經有人在宣導定期定額的概念,雖然沒特別去考究這概念到底從何時開始被提出,但看到一本70年前出版的書提到目前仍在被推行的概念,實在很讓人驚豔
等待投資機會
P.43
”The investor with portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor excited by sizable advances.”
簡單說,這段話就是希望投資人不要被投資組合資產的變化而牽動情緒,當我們投資股票時,應該期望價格的波動,讓我們有機會在下跌時加碼,上漲後賣出。 現在投資人往往容易受到消息面的影響,預期未來的下跌而先行賣出。
但不管是從巴菲特或是葛拉漢的發言當中都不難發現他們對於投資組合帳面價值的浮動是比較不在乎的,而是致力於做對的事情,研究公司,等待投資機會。
受到便宜的價格吸引,而非恐慌
P.70
”For most investors, we think, the real meaning of dollar averaging indicate that they should be wary of putting more money in stocks at higher prices than they did at lower prices — which common failing — and that they should never let a lower price level scare them away from buying.”
很多定期定額的投資人會認為在更高的價格應該投入更多的金額,而這通常導致失敗的結果,其實出現便宜的價格時,我們應該被吸引而不是感到恐慌。
防禦型投資人和專業型投資人
P.105
”Investment policy, as it has been developed here, depends in the first place upon a choice by the investor of either the defensive(passive) or aggressive(enterprising) role. The aggressive investor must have a considerable knowledge of security values-enough, in fact, to warrant viewing his security operations as equivalent to a business enterprise.
There is no room in this philosophy for a middle ground, or a series of gradation, between the passive and aggressive status.Many, perhaps most, investors seek to place themselves in such an intermediate category;
in our opinion that is a compromise that is more likely to produce disappointment than achievement.”
在這本書中,葛拉漢將投資人分為防禦型投資人和專業型投資人,其背後代表的分別為被動型和積極型,在第16頁有明確的點出兩種投資人分別會投資什麼,礙於篇幅我就不全打上來了,然而上面這段話代表的意思是如果投資人希望將自己置於專業型和防禦型投資人之間(也可以說是定位不明確),投資結果往往會令你失望。
被動型和積極型的選股在邏輯上有諸多不同,決策的標準和依據不一樣,當一個投資人有兩套邏輯在進行投資決策時,結果往往是不好的,因此葛拉漢建議投資人將自己的定位更清楚明白一點,passive or aggressive?
當股利不能夠被獲利所支撐時,股利並不適合作為投資參考依據
P.142
”But objective analysis suggests that other leading issues now offer considerably more for the money-except for the current dividend, which cannot be relied upon when not buttressed by earning power.”
當股利不能夠被獲利所支撐時,股利並不適合作為投資參考依據。 這話點破了許多投資人的迷思,因為東方國家偏好儲蓄,台灣也不意外,所以對於領息這件事情特別鍾愛。
不過在高殖利率的背後還是要深究一下股利的來源,雖然公司能夠配發很多的股息給股東,但是是因為獲利能力的提升,還是因為業外收入的挹注,或是在吃老本? 當股利和一間公司的獲利能力脫勾後,高殖利率、穩定發放這些特色,都不適合作為選擇投資的理由
Disclaimer(免責聲明)
P.156
”No one can be certain of the answers to questions of investment policy, when the right answer means a profit and the wrong one a loss.”
這段話的標題是Disclaimer(免責聲明),單純想記錄一下(笑)
股票評價的方法對於防禦型投資人來講效用不高
P.157
”The chief practical difference between the defensive investor and the enterprising is investor is that the former limits himself to large and leading, whereas the latter will buy any stock if his judgement and his technique tell him it is sufficiently attractive.
We do not consider it essential that the defensive investor be guided by our appraisal method, or something equivalent to it, in making his selection among the leading issues.
This may involve more bother than he is willing to assume.It may be quite enough if he buys a well-diversified cross section at any time except when the general market level has advanced into an area that cannot be justified by established standard of value.”
看得出來葛拉漢很推崇防禦型投資,雖然在這本書中有介紹到股票評價的方法,但他認為股票評價的方法對於防禦型投資人來講的效用不高,因為可能會帶給防禦型投資人過多的風險,防禦型投資人僅需選擇大型且產業地位領先的股票(龍頭股)即可,但專業型投資人可能因為仰賴技術和自身的經驗及判斷力,投資到各種股票上。
公司的本質改變與否
P.175
”Hence, in the theory at least ,the “worth”, or intrinsic value of a common stock will neither decline when earnings fall in depression periods nor advance when they improved in times of prosperity.The value will change only with the advent of new long-term development or influence which were not reflect in the original appraisal”
理論上來說,普通股的價值、或者說內在價值,是不會因為蕭條來臨而改變的,「價值的改變」只會因為公司新產生的政策、且政策對公司是有長期影響的(例如決定投入新事業體、且金額是可觀的),而且尚未反映在原始的股票評價上。
這段話對於投資人的心理層面幫助頗大,我們常常會在盤勢呈現下跌的時候,認為股票未來的前景是黯淡的,而上漲趨勢時,膨脹了對股票未來的信心,但可能股票市場經過了一個上下整理的小循環(3-6個月左右),持股並沒有根本上的改變,不過我們卻因盤勢影響而增減對它的評價
重點放在價格和股票內含價值之間的關係
P.177
”Thus we reach our conclusion, with its overtones of a scriptural paradox, that the investor can profit from market fluctuations only by paying them little the heed.
He must fix his eyes not on what the market has been doing– or what it apparently is going to do– but only on a result of its action as expressed in the relationship between the price level and the level of underlying or central values.”
投資人想要獲利,僅需付出不多、一點點的注意力在市場的波動上,投資人必須導正他的注意力,不要關注在市場正在發生、或是預測市場將要發生什麼,而是把重點放在價格和股票內含價值之間的關係。
看到後面可以發現葛拉漢幾乎用了整本書在訴諸同樣的事情,不過會穿鑿很多不一樣的案例或是說法來說服你,除了很推崇防禦型投資之外,對投資人的心理也做了很多精闢的分析。
確實在實務投資上常常會討論是否明天大盤會漲會跌,是否國際上又發生什麼事影響到股票市場,但卻花了太少的時間在個股的研究上面,應該花更多的心力在價格和價值之間的關係。
結語
實在很難用短短一篇文章來寫出對於這本書所有的感想,畢竟很多想法都是在看書當下所產生,或許一些段落可以讓你聯想到現實投資上遇到的問題,或許一些段落回答了思考很久的問題。
當看到某段話很有感觸的時候我會將頁碼記下來,方便之後查找,上面文章中就是我記錄的其中幾段,還是那句話,一本70年前出版的書到現在看還是有很多受用的地方,這就是所謂的經典吧。